Another false decode

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Another false decode

I got a false decode at IZ6BAJ station that I am operating at University of L'Aquila, Italy
Here is:

Timestamp Call MHz SNR Drift Grid Pwr Reporter RGrid km az
2009-02-15 08:44 LO3THU 14.097060 -9 -2 HF07 50 IZ6BAJ JN62qi 9894 36

Here I report what Joe, K1JT, wrote about WSPR: "As in JT65, strong forward error correction guarantees that messages are almost always received exactly as transmitted, or not at all."

Did someone computed the amount of probability that some noise is decoded as a false message?

Best regards

73 de i0kpt, Piero